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Scipio Artelius
The Vendunari
End of Life
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Posted - 2016.02.13 20:22:57 -
[1] - Quote
Ylmar wrote:baltec1 wrote:Its already been shown that the chances of being ganked in a freighter or jump freighter stands at less than 0.1% out of over 2 million jumps. You keep repeating that. It has not been shown. You don't even have access to the data required to potentially show it. Red Frog Freight statistics do not become representative for all of New Eden simply by you repeating them over and over again.
Actually, there are plenty of online sample calculators that you can plug any confidence figures into you like as see for yourself whether 2.8 million jumps in highsec in a year is likely to be a representative sample or not.
Here is an Australian Government one for example (just because I'm in AUS, but there are many others):
http://www.nss.gov.au/nss/home.nsf/pages/Sample+size+calculator
So if you want to work out roughly how many jumps in highsec each year total for haulers there might be, then calculate a sample size, at max it will be around 20,000 jumps needed for a high level of confidence. 2.8 million as a sample size is exceedingly good.
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Scipio Artelius
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Posted - 2016.02.13 20:30:09 -
[2] - Quote
Nevyn Auscent wrote:Which limit the size/value of the cargo dramatically, and therefore significantly skew the sample.
How much?
Of course, if you want to work at >1 Billion ISK collateral figures, then you can always use the Blue Frog statistics, which show even lower levels of gank risk.
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Scipio Artelius
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Posted - 2016.02.13 20:42:02 -
[3] - Quote
Lena Lazair wrote:You are abusing stats. Please stop.
... ignorant about basic statistical principles.
Excuse me?
This should be a fun discussion. Have at it.
Not personal views. Put the basic theory out there to support that claim and of course, link that to what I have claimed (which is?).
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Scipio Artelius
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Posted - 2016.02.13 21:01:40 -
[4] - Quote
Rhamnousia Nosferatu wrote:Representativeness of the sample does not stem from sample size. For starters.
Yeah that's a good place to start.
Representativeness of course stems from the qualities you want to measure (ie. It's representative if it accurately reflects the relevant qualities of the entire population). That's the primary consideration. Once that is known, the sample size you take from a population to measure that is absolutely critical to achieving a good analysis.
There may be differences in what is considered an important quality and clearly the RFF (Blue FF to include collateral >1 Billion) is not a measure of risk achieved by the whole hauling population. It's representative of RFF (and Blue and Black if you include those figures) and a good measure of the overall safety that can be achieved by anyone.
The claim in the thread was that 2.8 million jumps in highsec every year is not a representative sample, which is total rubbish. It is a perfectly good sample depending on what you are hoping to achieve from the data.
So RFF for <1 Billion collateral in highsec. Add in Blue FF for > 1Billion collateral in highsec and the level of safety they achieve is as objective as it can get unless you think they publish incorrect data.
Is that the same risk that all haulers achieve? Absolutely not, because other haulers don't necessarily manage risk as well as the RFF group. It is as good a representative data set of the level of risk that can be achieved (for a broad range of collateral amounts), no matter who is hauling.
The data I've been collecting for the last couple of weeks will be ready to publish shortly and since that looks at the risk for the whole hauling community passing through Uedama and Niarja, hopefully it will add some additional data that can be analysed several different ways. It is also a large sample size (though not a 100% sample, such as RFF data).
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Scipio Artelius
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Posted - 2016.02.13 21:12:43 -
[5] - Quote
Lugh Crow-Slave wrote:What's wrong with just reducing the total hp from the freighter hull?
For me, that would be an equally crazy outcome from a rebalance of Damage Controls.
If it is straight up about balancing Damage Controls, then it shouldn't have any effect on Freighters at all. It's a totally irrelevant issue for that class of ship.
So to nerf their HP to compensate for a buff to EHP seems just as strange as buffing their EHP to compensate for a DCU nerf to begin with.
I personally wouldn't want to see Freighter statistics nerfed just because of a DCU rebalance.
Quote:Unless ccp thinks they need a buff but for some reason thought it would be better not to just come out and day that.
In the context of a DCU rebalance, this is the only thing that actually makes sense.
CCP want to buff Freighters and this is the easy way to achieve it. It doesn't necessarily make sense (certainly not to everyone), but seems the obvious reason.
Quote:.... but I really think the discution about what this means for freighters should be put into a new thread as any conversation on the misusing or how it effects other apps is just getting down out at this point
Ideally, I agree.
Buff Freighters in their own thread and contain what is a very strange aspect of this change in its own place and let discussion about the other aspects, good and bad (eg. whether it's a larger buff for Gallente than oither races) be possible.
At the moment, any other discussion is lost in the freighter aspect of this.
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Scipio Artelius
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Posted - 2016.02.13 21:16:32 -
[6] - Quote
Rhamnousia Nosferatu wrote:Scipio Artelius wrote:... Again, and as you've admited yourself, RFF data is representative of RFF.
As I also said, it's also representative of the level of risk that anyone can achieve.
It's not just unique to RFF. Anyone can achieve the same outcome as them, so it is representative beyond RFF, to anyone that manages risk effectively and every single one of us is able to do that.
That can be ignored, but it is still true.
The additional data that comes out shortly (which anyone will be able to verify independently by watching all the video back again), will be representative of the whole population. It's analysis from different sides should be fun to follow.
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Scipio Artelius
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Posted - 2016.02.13 21:24:14 -
[7] - Quote
Lena Lazair wrote:Again you are leaving out the critical assumption here; really the single biggest point of contention on this argument. It is a measure of overall safety that can be achieved by anyone provided the only high-sec contracts that ever need to be flown are those that fit under RFF policies.
I haven't left out anything at all. My statements have been consistent that the RFF data is representative of the level of risk that can be achieved by anyone.
No assumptions have been omitted, but the willingness of others to completely dismiss that conclusion, while claiming at the same time that it is so easy to just drop into Udeama and see the problem, offering no evidence themselves, prompted me to go collect data myself because this endless whining is pointless.
That data will be published shortly and is representative of the whole population passing through Uedama and Niarja (which conservatively makes the data as biased as possible towards the assumption that bumping and ganking are problems that require mechanics changes).
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Scipio Artelius
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Posted - 2016.02.13 21:36:08 -
[8] - Quote
Lena Lazair wrote:EDIT: You are basically zooming in on one portion of a large system, then saying "if we scaled this up and replaced the entire system with just this, it would continue to be accurate". That's an obviously absurd assumption, I'm not even sure why I'd need to point it out.
No I'm not. That is a completely wrong interpretation of what I have said.
I have made no claims about ways gankers would modify their behaviour if all haulers followed RFF (and throw in Blue FF since 1 Billion collateral across the board is limited), then .
My statements are purely on the data and current context. Fullstop.
Any extrapolation of what I have said to assume that means all hauling should shift to RFF policies is your own addition. That is not what I mean at all. There is no way currently to know the risk that would result if that occurred since their is 0 data to analyse.
My only statement is the that level of risk achieved by RFF (and Blue FF) is achievable by any of us.
No extra context implied other than the risk that can be achieved currently and that is true whether you want to diminish the relevance of that or not.
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Posted - 2016.02.13 22:50:45 -
[9] - Quote
One question I have been trying to answer for myself is:
What breaks if you balance the DCU as outlined in the OP, but don't buff every ship with a 33% hull resist?
Sentry guns is one possibility, since you would be reducing the overall tank of most ships, making it easier for sentry guns to burn through ships that have a DCU fit.
Another possibility is that ships fit with a DCU lose tank compared to now, whereas ships that don't fit a DCU currently don't lost tank, which potentially shortens some fights. The flip side is that with the current buff, even ships that don't fit a DCU now also get buffed, so they still become comparatively stronger, so it seems not much really changes relatively no matter which way the change goes.
As with the previous one, overall tank in the game would be reduced for many ships, but overall DPS in the game will remain the same, potentially shortening fights.
What else potentially breaks if no one gets the 33% hull resist buff?
Why not just balance DCUs and let the meta adjust to where it adjusts to and let fights be shorter and potentially with more destruction?
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